Tim Tebow:

 

The Can’t Miss Kid

 

  

What the experts missed and why he’ll

be the next great NFL quarterback.

 

 

 

Think you’ve seen pro quarterbacks? Here comes a young gunslinger packed   with speed, power, agility and a red hot passion for the game.

 

 

 

High in the Rockies at training camp in Dove Valley, the Denver Broncos and their future starting quarterback, are quietly going about preparing for a new season. Arguably the greatest quarterback in college football history, Tim Tebow is enjoying some peace—if not rest—away from the palaver of career prognosticators, nominal experts and pigskin pundits and doing what he’s been born to do: Molding himself into a NFL quarterback capable of leading his team to Super Bowls. 

 

Maybe though, something bigger is going on. Much bigger. It just might be the final stages of tinkering with and test firing the new prototype of an NFL quarterback. Time will tell, but it just might be that Tim Tebow represents a new kind of quarterback, one with a blend of speed, power and agility that none before him ever possessed and above all, a fiery passion for winning.

 

After witnessing Tebow’s blockbuster career at Florida—five NCAA, 14 SEC and 28 Florida records, 88 touchdowns through the air and 57 on the ground, two national championships, three bowl victories and a Heisman Trophy—reading forecasts bluntly  predicting his pro career will turn to ashes,was like reading Naked Lunch on drugs.   

 

 

 

 

 As soon as the college bowl season ended, when attention pivoted to the draft, more than a handful of football clairvoyants began writing Tebow off saying, “He was a good college quarterback, end of story.” Their assessments, as perfunctory as they were stupefying.

  

Serious fans of the game weren’t expecting Tebow to be the Number One pick of the draft. As awesome as he was at Florida, we knew he needed work before stepping behind center as a pro. “We watch the NFL on Sundays too, fellas.” We knew Tebow’s deficits as well as the guys who were being paid to tell us about them. But we saw the future in him.

 

What were the media types watching these past four years? Are they so locked into the stereotypical image of an NFL quarterback that they can’t see past it? Does being so far into the NFL game rob them of vision?

 

 No one knows if any of the 2010 quarterbacks will cut it in the NFL. But none is more likely to make history than Tebow.  A good place to start finding out why is with his college career. Here it is in a nutshell:

  

 
 

The first four quarterbacks chosen in the 2010 Draft, were Sam Bradford (Oklahoma), Tebow (Florida), Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame) and Colt McCoy (Texas). Of the four, only Tebow and McCoy stayed on at their colleges for four years, so let’s start with a head-to-head comparison of their statistics.

  

 
 

McCoy played two games less than Tebow, yet threw for 3,967 more yards and 24 more touchdowns. In every other category, however, Tebow’s stats are better: His Pass Efficiency Rating is 17.75 points higher, he threw 24 fewer touchdowns, but ran for 57, crediting him with 145 TDs compared to McCoy’s 132. Plus Tebow had 31 fewer interceptions, throwing a mere 14 to McCoy’s 45.

 

 

 

Comparing Tebow’s stats to those of Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen is tricky because they played only three years of college ball. To balance the comparisons, Tebow’s numbers, when he was not a starter, were eliminated. Here’s how the stats play out:

 

 

	PER	Pas%	Int	Yds	TD	Rush	TD
Tebow	166.8	67.1	14	8928	88	2498	49
Bradford	163.9	64.3	16	8403	88	49	5
Clausen	132.6	67.1	27	8148	55	-  325	5

Place Tebow’s college stats next to those of  the Steelers' Ben Roethelisberger and the Titans' Vince Young, both with three years of college ball, and his draft stock rises.

 

	PER	Pas%	Int	Yds	TD	Rush	TD
Tebow	166.8	67.1	14	8928	88	2498	49
Roethlis-berger	151.3	65.5	34	10829	84	246	7
Young	144.9	61.8	28	6040	44	3175	37

 Eli Manning (Mississippi) and Philip Rivers (N.C. State) didn't play on power house teams but both have been in the NFL six years and one has a Super Bowl ring. Check out the four  year college statistics of all three, and Tebow remains a solid pick.

  

	PER	Pas%	Int	Yds	TD	Rush	TD
Tebow	166.8	67.1	14	8928	88	2947	57
Manning	137.7	60.8	35	10119	81	-141	5
Rivers	144.1	63.5	95	13484	95	115	18

 

  

Total Passing Yardage as a Factor 

  

A Clue Drafting For QB’s ? The totals for passing yardage show us that a quarterback who amasses 10,000+ yards in college is likely to move up in the draft even though his pass efficiency rating is substantially below 170.0 and his pass completion percentage is below 65%. Passing yards over 10,000 apparently reduce a draft  maven’s fear about picking a QB with an elevated interception rate, paper thin rushing yards and low scoring stats.

 

  

The NFL Combine 2010

  

Neither Bradford nor Clausen participated in the Combine. McCoy did, but he didn’t boost his stock. Of all quarterbacks who worked out , Tebow had the best performance, placing first in four out of six drills and second in one. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.72 which put him in fourth place, .07 seconds ahead of McCoy. The best time was 4.54 by Jarrett Brown (West Virginia) followed by Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan) 4.66 and Zac Robinson (Oklahoma State) 4.71, .o1 ahead of Tebow.

 

  

How important is the 40-yard dash? As Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News put it on the mnbcsports.msnbc blog in February 2008: “. . . how often do running backs get a chance to run 40 yards down an NFL field unimpeded?”

 

Iyer points out that in 2005 J.J. Arrington (Cardinals) was the top major-college back with 4.4 in the 40. That same year Frank Gore (49ers), with his history of knee injuries, ran 4.65, finishing 54^th among all backs. But at the end of the 2007 season, Arrington had yet to break 1,000 yards from scrimmage, while Gore cranked out more yards from scrimmage than any runner in the 2005 class.

 

Marion Barber (Cowboys), had the most rushing touchdowns among the 2005 backs and finished 21^st in his pre-draft 40.

 

  

In four years with the Cardinals, Arrington gained 654 yards and missed all of 2009 after having microfracture surgery. He was traded to Denver this year and as of this writing is with the Philadelphia Eagles, but must still pass a physical. Through 2009, Frank Gore has 5561 rushing yards and Marion Barber has 3984.

 

  

If speed is important to you, be prepared to be surprised. Eli Manning (Giants) earned the nickname “SloMo” for his 2003 40-yard time of 4.85. I’m not saying that speed isn’t desirable, it certainly is, except most pro quarterbacks don’t have much of it. Of the first five quarterbacks in the 2007 Draft, two—JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn—did not take part in the Combine. The other three—Kevin Kolb (Eagles), John Beck (Dolphins) and Drew Stanton (Lions) all ran 4.75.

 

  

At the 2008 Combine, Matt Ryan (Falcons) ran a 4.95, Joe Flacco (Ravens) had a 4.86, Brian Brohm (Bills) ran a 4.83 and Chad Henne (Dolphins), a 4.92. They were the first four quarterbacks taken. To date Brohm has 164 yards passing, -3 yards rushing and a quarterback rating of 43.2 while Henne has 75 rushing yards, 2945 passing and a 75.2 quarterback rating.

 

  

The first four QB’s drafted in 2009 were the Lions’ Matthew Stafford (4.83 in the 40), the Jets’ Mark Sanchez (4.85), the Buc’s Josh Freeman (4.97) and the Dolphins’ Pat White (4.55). White was the 44^th player taken, Freeman 17th, Sanchez 5^th and Stafford 1^st.

 

  

The workout drill results for all quarterbacks who participated in the 2007, 2008 and 2009 Combines reveal that no quarterback turned in a better all around performance than Tebow  did this year and none dominated the quarterback results by coming up number one in four out of  six skills tests as did Tebow.